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Dear Planetary Steward, dear friend of the Global Commons Alliance,
Most countries missed Monday’s deadline to submit updated climate action plans, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), under the Paris Agreement, so the deadline has been extended to September. Countries will need to deliver ahead of COP30 in Brazil in November – of which the summit’s Executive Director Ana Toni, has said can only be a success if plans are “detailed and ambitious”.
We cannot afford to wait and see. Not only was last year the hottest on record, but we temporarily breached the 1.5°C global warming limit for the first time. A paper published last week finds the Arctic will be transformed beyond recognition under current NDCs. Prices of everyday goods and services continue to be affected by destruction of the global commons, as extreme weather impacts insurance premiums and supply chains – with US$25 trillion in net losses estimated by mid-century. The global economy faces a 50% loss in GDP between 2070 and 2090 under current climate policies. But this trend can be turned around by building economic resilience through restoring and investing in Earth’s natural systems.
Some countries are seizing this opportunity. China is set to account for 60% of renewables by 2030. A UK bank is helping farmers transition to sustainable practices. This week the impacts of climate on trade agreements – as well as on regional conflicts and democratic resilience – will be discussed by decision-makers at the Munich Security Conference. Leaders understand planetary changes are fundamentally a human security issue. But with German elections in two weeks expected to move leadership to the right, momentum for the urgent collaboration we need to secure a Safe and Just planet may stall.
Leadership however, does not just come in the form of chancellors and presidents. Communities and citizens everywhere are continuing to drive change. The European Court of Human Rights has ruled that governments failing to properly address pollution is a violation of the right to life, in a case first brought forward by Italian citizens. Science Moms, a group of scientist parents in the US, got their climate advert shown during the Super Bowl. Approval to open the biggest undeveloped oil field in the UK, Rosebank, was overturned thanks to a court case supported by 100,000 people.
We must keep leaning into initiatives with the potential to bring positive system change. Yesterday we did this by celebrating International Day of Women and Girls in Science. It’s critical to spotlight the role of science in shaping decision-making, and women in science at the Global Commons Alliance are leading the way for a Safe and Just future. No matter who is running a country, Earth system science must guide leaders’ decisions if they want security, and healthy, prosperous communities – science cannot be deleted.
All my best,
Jane
