New research reveals path to prosperity for planet and people if Earth’s critical resources are better shared

New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.

The report is co-authored by over sixty leading natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission – an international science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance. The report is led by Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Prof. Xuemei Bai, and Prof. Diana Liverman and builds on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed.

Findings: The Safe and Just Space is shrinking

This new paper identifies the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for – and sets out the paths to reach and stay in this Space.

The Earth System Boundaries published last year can be seen as the “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, within which the Earth systems can remain stable and resilient, and people can be safe from harm. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing us what the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty. This is the first time scientists have quantified safety (a stable planet) and justice (people being protected from harm) in the same units – demonstrating that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. The paper builds on fundamental ideas of Earth System Justice, published in Nature Sustainability and Environmental Politics.

In this new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050, and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate specifically they found that, if significant changes aren’t made now, by 2050 there will be no Safe and Just Space left. That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary. Earth systems face the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points which would cause further significant harm to people around the world – unless energy, food and urban systems are urgently transformed.

They also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

The research also looked at where on the planet the Safe and Just boundaries have been breached, and overlayed this with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change that impacts the health of people and ecosystems – but everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk.

Joyeeta Gupta, former co-chair of the Earth Commission, and Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, said: “We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth. Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don’t have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.”

Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam, said: “For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive. This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. It looks at the risk for further decline of the Earth system, the harm communities are experiencing as a result, but also seeks to identify how resources need to be fairly distributed. Communities, poor and rich, across the world are already vulnerable and will become more exposed – but we have a window to act now and change course.”

Wendy Broadgate, Executive Director for the Earth Commission and Global Hub Director at Future Earth, said: “Addressing justice must be at the heart of our response to the planetary crisis. We need to run our economies and societies differently to live within the Safe and Just Space. The Earth Commission’s work highlights living within the safe boundaries of the planet, and incorporating justice, is not possible without addressing inequalities and ensuring everyone has the essential resources for a dignified life. This paper – synthesised by 65 natural and social scientists from over 20 countries – provides a scientific foundation for the Safe and Just Space and the transformations that are required to reach it”.

Urgent transformations required

The Safe and Just Space is the only remaining space rich in opportunities – in which people and the planet will remain able to thrive. To reach this space, the paper calls for change in three areas:

• Firstly, a well coordinated, intentional effort between policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities can push for changes to how we run the economy and find new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate.
• Secondly, fundamental to the transformation is more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society – including addressing the excess consumption of some communities which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most.
• Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies is essential to help us use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all – particularly where there is little or no space left.

“These are profound transformations of our societies, requiring effective governance from local to global levels. We have the knowledge and the tools. This work illuminates that space where all people, businesses and economies can thrive on a healthy planet. Any efforts to protect the planet must take into account the needs of the millions of people that don’t even have access to the basics right now. Now decision makers need to implement policies and activities that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate”, said Diana Liverman, Regents Professor of Geography, Development and Environment at the University of Arizona, member of the Earth Commission and co-lead of its transformations working group until 2023.

Businesses and cities in particular have a leading role to play in driving these transformations,  becoming better stewards of Earth’s natural resources.

Xuemei Bai, member of the Earth Commission, Distinguished Professor at Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, said: “Companies and cities have a huge potential to make a difference, especially if they work towards the same goal – ensuring the planet can provide for everyone long-term. They are more nimble and flexible than states, and can reduce their pressure on the planet by setting science-based targets in line with our findings.”

NOTES TO EDITORS

“Minimum access” measurement 

• Based on the Sustainable Development Goals, the researchers defined two levels of minimum access to key resources, including food, water, energy, basic shelter and transport.
  • Level 1 provides basic dignity, a low standard but slightly higher than the international poverty line.
  • Level 2 is slightly higher and provides basic living standards. This is the foundation of the Safe and Just Space and includes:
    • a healthy diet (EAT-Lancet) 2500 cal/day
    • 100 L of water/person/day for drinking, cooking, hygiene
    • electricity for 16 h/day, incl. one high-power appliance, e.g. washing machine (0·7 kWh/capita/day)
    • housing: living area 15m2
    • transportation: up to 4500 passenger-km per year

The Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries

• First launched in 2023, the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries are fast becoming the scientific backbone of the next generation of sustainability targets and practices.
• Already informing initiatives such as the Science Based Targets Network, producing science-based targets for Nature, they are guiding city and business leaders and policy-makers to access the opportunities offered by the Safe and Just Space by better managing the planet’s finite resources.
• In the first paper, published in Nature, the Commission showed that the health and success of people, societies and businesses are inseparable from the health and stability of the planet.
• Earth System Boundaries focus on quantitative and qualitative description of boundaries beyond which social-ecological systems may collapse and humans may be harmed. They go beyond planetary boundaries by both combining elements from local to global levels, and biophysical and social science knowledge domains. The Earth System Boundaries are designed to be downscaled for action.
• There are boundaries for climate, freshwater (surface and groundwater), fertilisers (nitrogen and phosphorus), biodiversity (managed land and intact nature) and aerosol pollutants, which are the most important interconnected systems and critical resources  upon which we and the planet’s stability depend.
• The Boundaries integrate two elements:
  • Safe boundaries – within which the planet will remain stable, and that we know can sustain human development.
  • Just boundaries – within which the planet can sustain life i.e. all people can access basic resources and be protected from planetary harm.

Examples of vulnerable communities affected by Earth system change

The paper identifies the locations around the world where the Safe and Just Boundaries are breached, and overlays this with the vulnerability of people exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages.

The findings show the poorest are already the most vulnerable to the impact of Earth system change, but everyone around the globe is at risk of becoming more vulnerable and exposed. For example:

• In India, approximately 1 billion people are living on land with diminished capacity to provide ecosystem services that contribute to humans’ well-being.
• Under a 2°C temperature stabilisation target in 2100, Bangladesh’s population will be among the most affected by sea level rise with approximately 30 million people exposed.
• In Indonesia, around 194 and 140 million people are exposed to unsafe levels of nitrogen and phosphorus surplus respectively.
• In Brazil, approximately 79 million people are exposed to unsafe and unjust levels of air pollution due to fine particulate matter (so-called PM2.5).
• Human-induced alteration of blue water flows, which include both surface water and groundwater, has led to unsafe and harmful consequences for the environment and populations. India is the country hardest hit by water shortages. Other countries are also affected, for example Germany with an estimated 13 and 76 million people respectively exposed to conditions outside the Safe and Just Earth System Boundary for surface water and groundwater.

Associated organisations

• This science has been produced by the Earth Commission, an international team of social and natural scientists engaging over 60 experts, coordinated by a scientific secretariat hosted by Future Earth – the world’s largest network of sustainability scientists. The Earth Commission is currently chaired by Prof. Fatima Denton and Prof. Johan Rockström and is  the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance.
• The Global Commons Alliance  is a growing coalition of scientists, philanthropists, businesses and innovators, inspiring new ideas and action to safeguard what’s common and precious to us all: the global commons. Our mission is to mobilise citizens, companies, cities and countries to accelerate systems change, and become better guardians of the global commons. The GCA currently comprises over 70 partners, including World Business Council for Sustainable Development, The Nature Conservancy, Capitals Coalition, and has five core components:
  • Earth Commission
  • Science Based Targets Network 
  • Earth HQ
  • Systems Change Lab
  • Accountability Accelerator 

Resources

The scientific paper in Lancet Planetary Health

Infographic illustrating key messages of the paper: Infographic

Visuals to illustrate the transition to a Safe and Just space (credit Superflux): Lancet Superflux image