El Niño-2026 What it is, why it matters — and how to explain it

To safeguard the global commons, we all need to understand how Earth systems interact with each other. The 2026 El Niño is a clear example of how a single climate pattern can ripple across ocean temperatures, weather patterns and economies worldwide.

Explore our toolkit below to learn more — and share to help drive action.

It is likely that 2026 will see the largest El Niño event since records began in the late 1800s. To many people, the El Niño is a critical issue further accelerating the cascading nature and climate crises. Yet many more have never heard of it. Media coverage of these topics doesn’t always help — for example in the UK the recent extreme heat led to 2,700 deaths but 72% of the main national news about the heatwave didn’t mention global heating or climate according to Energy & Climate Intelligence analysis — there is a wider issue of science communications. And that is one area where the Global Commons Alliance can help.

Climate and Earth system science is full of technical terms and specialist jargon that rarely make their way into everyday conversation, even when the phenomena they describe can shape weather, food prices, and daily life for billions of people. Economists warn that the incoming ‘super’ El Niño could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices and increase extreme weather impacting lives and livelihoods. So what exactly is it?

WHAT IS THE EL NIÑO?

The El Niño is a natural climate pattern where the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean warm above normal periodically, temporarily disrupting weather systems around the world — shifting rainfall, fuelling droughts and floods in different regions, and adding extra heat into an already warming planet. Historically El Niño events happened roughly every 2 to 7 years.

Scientists track its strength using sea-surface temperature readings in a patch of ocean known as the Niño 3.4 region. According to analysis by climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, newly updated forecasts drawing on more than 650 individual simulations, now put the expected peak of this year’s event at roughly 3.6 degrees Celsius above the historical average. That is much higher than the previous record of 2.75 degrees, set during the 2015-16 El Niño.

Hausfather explains that Pacific waters are already running unusually warm for mid-July, well ahead of where conditions stood at this point in 1997 or 2015, two of the most notable El Niño years on record. Because El Niño typically doesn’t peak until late autumn or winter, forecasters expect further intensification in the coming months.

Sea-surface temperature anomaly; ESA (data sources: CMEMS/ESA SST CCI)

The implications extend beyond the Ocean itself. Since global average temperatures tend to respond to El Niño with a lag of several months, most of the added warmth from this event is expected to show up in 2027, which could become the hottest year ever recorded by a substantial margin. 

Scientists caution that this event is pushing forecasting tools into uncharted territory. No model has ever been tested against a real El Niño this strong, since nothing like it has previously occurred. For now, researchers say the message is consistent across models and observations alike: the world may be on track to witness a record-breaking El Niño.

INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS

An event of this scale is a reminder that Earth’s life-support systems are deeply interconnected. A record El Niño will shift rainfall and drought patterns across multiple continents at once, straining food and water supplies in countries that often have limited resilience. Understanding how the global commons function together is essential for protecting planetary health and securing a just world on a safe planet.

To help you communicate all of this with your own audiences, we have provided a list of resources below, including animations and science papers.

Are things missing from this toolkit below? Do you find it helpful and would like us to provide more toolkits like this on other topics as well? Let us know and share your feedback with us!